I-L22-241510 Sturdevant Y-DNA Update

Relevant Articles of Interest:
– STURDEVANT Y-DNA Project Results
– I-L22-241510 – A New Subclade
– Big-Y Testing Tool
– H1011 Big-Y Report (members only)
– I-L22-241510 SturDEvant Update #1

Current Update: May 10, 2017 (new update pending)

First, if anyone can provide additional insight or find a potential problem with this analysis, or has anything to add,  please let us know. I have opened a forum topic so that members may discuss issues or findings. I am hoping that by collaborating, we can understand the anomalies identified by genetic analysis.

Second, I’ll add that after 18 months, the I-L22 Sturdevants still do not have an officially recognized subclade. As you see, we continue to use the unofficial 241510 identifier.

This is the second analysis identifying important information related to the I-L22-241510 cluster of Sturdevants and to put that information into genealogical context. This update incorporates information from the “DE” portion of the original Y-DNA project hosted by DNA Heritage before merger with FTDNA. There are now 14 member haplotypes for comparison and analysis. Generally, these haplotypes have been thought of as the “DE” spelling and as descendants of William SturDEvant of Connecticut Colony. We will now see that may not be true.

The new additions to the Y-DNA study retain their original identifiers which begin with a “C.” They tested at 43 markers with DNA Heritage so the additional markers add a little more detail to the data available for the previous update. We now have sufficient data to make some interesting observations with respect to the genealogies.

Available DNA analysis tools analyze and present the simplest and most likely possibility (parsimony), therefore, information and inferences presented are “best possible” based on a very small statistical population. The information and inferences presented on these pages reflect the best analysis possible using parsimonious logic and the available input data.

Haplotype Comparison Table

Minimally, only 37 markers are available for comparison; however, we can leverage that by including the 43 markers of the original members, the additional markers of more recent members, and also the researched genealogy of each member. Using all available information, it is possible to infer certain marker values when those values are not tested but are otherwise obvious. In the following diagrams, the inferred values are identified with a red font. Disregarding C5, of the tested markers, ten show relevant mutations within the cluster. They are tracked and analysed for this update as identified on each diagram. Marker values that are the same for each haplotype offer no added information so they are not used or annotated to the diagrams. For simplicity, markers pertinent to this analysis are shown in the above haplotype table with black font; ignored markers are shown as yellow. At greater test levels, there are likely more mutations so better differentiation is possible. All project members are encouraged to upgrade tests to at least 67 markers (preferably 111) so that inferences and time estimates can be fine-tuned.

Original member C5 with genealogy pointing to Paul of Canada b.1781 is a distant outlier to the other cluster members. The C5 haplotype identifies 17 variances within the 43 markers tested while most cluster members have only one. That means C5 is by far the oldest of the included haplotypes; probably several generations older. Therefore, C5 remains beyond the capability of meaningful analysis until additional haplotypes of that lineage become available. However, the following diagrams show that C5 fits nicely as the oldest common ancestor who probably lived long before the Great Migration to America. Perhaps, he was the first SturDEvant.

The following two diagrams report the results of genetic and genealogical descent, respectively. The Genetic Lineage Diagram reports ancestral relationships derived from haplotype analysis and the Genealogical Lineage Diagram reports the “known” genealogical lineage derived from genealogical research. Each diagram is color-coded as indicated by the legend. Click the image to open it in a new tab or window where it may be enlarged by a second click.

• • Descendants of the expanded I-L22-241510 cluster belong to four distinct lineages with a “most ancient” common ancestor (MRCA) who may be the bearer of the first SturDEvant surname. MRCA is the patrilineal common ancestor of this cluster.

• • Blue cells depict other common ancestors of the linked descendants. Each cell is a node where a mutation has occurred.

• • Ancestral cells may reflect multiple individuals as in brothers or generations.

• • Grey cells identify the tested members and their mutated markers. See the Legend for addition explanation.

• • Marker values of common ancestors are parsimoniously  inferred from the members’ haplotypes; dark red identifies mutated markers.

• • Cluster size is an important statistical consideration. DNA analysis tools are designed for large populations where meaningful averages can be determined. Inferences are made only where reasonable but it is possible (although unlikely) that an inference may be incorrect.

• • One common ancestor can be positively identified as John II b.1710. His haplotype is inferred from the haplotypes of his descendants.

• • Other common ancestors can not be determined at this time since a single marker mutation usually spans multiple genealogical generations. For example, in terms of marker mutations, the immediate genetic ancestor of John II may be John I or William because we can’t determine when DYS449: 28 => 29.

• • C5 may have an underplayed role in this genetic lineage. DYS570 was not tested by the original project but it plays a major role in the genetic analysis. C5 is untested at DYS570 but C5 matches the ancestral values of H1011 (see BigY) at DYS391 and DYS389ii. With that evidence, DYS570 is inferred to be 20, the same ancestral value assigned to H1011.

• • A very rough estimate of time between mutations can be determined by calculating the average number of mutations that occurred from the known birth of William to the average birth of each descendant haplotype; approximately 155 years per mutation.

• • Using the above estimate of time to mutate, the time to MRCA (TMRCA) is about 8.5 x 155 = ~1300 years (SWAG) which roughly agrees with the TMRCA table, below.

• • The dashed red box that surrounds C3, C6, C9 and C10 identifies an unexpected genealogical relationship. All four are obviously descendants of John II and identified by the DYS635: 21 => 20 mutation. See the Genealogical Lineage Diagram; click the image to open it in a new tab or window where it may be enlarged by a second click.

• A second dashed red box around C7 and B4062 identifies another, different anomaly. See the Genealogical Lineage Diagram.

• Blue cells identify common ancestors of their respective descendants. However, we do know that by the birth of John II,
  DYS570: 20 => 21. That mutation  may have occurred at either John I or William and, accordingly, it would change the descendancy (dashed link) of Justus.
• Yellow cells reflect the oldest generation that a mutation may have occurred. For example, the DYS576: 18 => 17 mutation must have occurred at (2) or younger. The mutation could not have occurred before (2) because (1) does not have that marker value.
• Dashed lines and cells are entities that may be inferred, i.e., best estimates given the available information.
• Vertical cell placement attempts to align generations across lineages.
• C3, C6, C9 and C10 present an unexpected issue. Because the haplotypes are identical, all four persons are expected to have been fathered by one man having a similar haplotype. Whereas genetic analysis indicates that they likely share a common father, genealogical research disagrees. Genealogists call this “mis-attributed paternity” which may result from adoption,  mis-identification, or other events. This anomaly cannot be resolved with the available data and will be left to each member to resolve.
• Another potential issue is Jonathan, b.1761, who is identified as a common ancestor of C7 and B4062. However, genetic analysis shows that he is unlikely to be an ancestor of both. Again, resolution is left to the appropriate members.

Since there are very few mutations within 37 markers, the I-L22-241510 mutation rate appears to be very slow. Perhaps, because 241510 DNA is young (haplogroup I-L22 is 4100 years old) and it remains relatively stable (i.e., given mutation rates may not apply to this cluster). At 37 markers, most of the tested haplotypes have experienced only a single marker mutation within genealogical time. Compare this to our SturTEvant cousins of haplogroup R-M269: 241510 has experienced ten variances while R-M269 has experienced 25.

The following GD and TMRCA tables may be of interest. The Genetic Distance table simply provides the total number of mutations between any two haplotypes. The TMRCA (Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor) table is more complex and provides an estimate of the 50% probability of finding the MRCA within a given number of years.

Visit the forum (Do the 241510 anomalies impact genealogy?) or leave a comment. Questions are welcome. You must login to leave a comment or question.